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Invasive Mice Pose Risk of Extinction to Albatross Species

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Cryptic population decrease due to invasive species predation in a long-lived seabird supports need for eradication

Steffen Oppel, Bethany L. Clark, Michelle M. Risi, Catharine Horswill, Sarah J. Converse, Christopher W. Jones, Alexis M. Osborne, Kim Stevens, Vonica Perold, Alexander L. Bond, Ross M. Wanless, Richard Cuthbert, John Cooper, Peter G. Ryan

Summarized by Michael Hallinan

What data were used? This study uses data collected on the breeding population of Tristan Albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) from 2004 to 2021 on Gough Island, in the southern Atlantic Ocean, where they almost exclusively live. All adult birds were marked and identified using metal rings for identification across annual visits during breeding season. This resulted in 4,014 albatross having encounter histories, and a very high probability that any breeding individual will have been detected if the nest had not failed early as they are faithful to their breeding sites. In addition to population metrics the number of nests per study area was recorded.

Methods: From the population size and demographic data an estimation of population trajectory, annual survival probability, and probability of returning to breeding grounds were calculated. These models were used to create population projections under three different scenarios. One scenario where mouse predation of the hatchlings did not change average breeding success and survival, one where mouse eradication lead to an increase in annual breeding success, and one where gradual increase of mouse predation decreases adult survival by 10%

Results: Generally, between 2004 and 2021 albatross breeding pairs didn’t seem to decrease statistically significantly. However, when also considering immature and non-breeding birds there was a detectable decrease in the global population of ~1% per year. Since albatross survival was quite high, this long-term decrease seems to be explained by low breeding success which is later investigated in the three scenario projections. Within these projections, under scenario A (where mouse predation stayed the same) the population steadily declined up through the model. Under scenario B (where successful mouse eradication occurred) the albatross population experienced an increase to 1.8-7.6 times its current size by 2050. Lastly, under scenario C (where no mouse eradication occurred and impacts worsened) the population declined significantly by 2050 with less than 2000 birds remaining.  

A shaded range line graph which presents observed breeding population and estimated total population from 2005 to 2021, as well as modeled total populations from 2021 to 2050. Breeding populations were consistently between 2000 individuals and 4000 individuals for this period with little variation outside of this range. The estimated total population however, begins at about 10000 individuals in 2005 and steadily decreases with some plateaus and peaks till about 8000 individuals in 2021. In addition, this graph then presents modeled data from 2021 to 2050 of each of the three scenarios. In scenario A (where no change occurs) the median population declines steadily from about 8000 to a little under 7000 individuals by 2050. In scenario B (where mice are successfully eradicated) the population experiences a median population increase up to just under 10000 individuals by 2050 but estimation errors result in a very wide credible interval which ranges from as high as approximately 17000 to a little under 8000 individuals in 2050. Lastly, in scenario C (where mice population increases and no eradication occurs) the median estimated population falls under 2000 individuals plus or minus 1000 by 2050.
This diagram shows observed population size on Gough Island between 2004 and 2021 (all data left of the dashed vertical line) where the black data points and regression represent the breeding population and the green line represents total estimated population size including unobservable immature and non-breeding birds.The three lines and intervals shown to the right side of the dashed line present the three scenarios through 2050. The lines represent the median values and the shading represents the 95% credible interval.

Why is this study important? The Tristan Albatross is classified as critically endangered based on a previous demographic analysis, finding that the species might go extinct within 30 years. This study creates a better projection for albatross population health under the three scenarios, which allows for significantly improved conservation efforts and a data-based sense of urgency regarding their conservation. 

The big picture: A series of Albatross population health and nest quantity data from 2004 to 2021 was recorded. It was used to model future population health development among three different scenarios regarding invasive mice predation on the albatross chicks. One where mice predation stayed the same, one where it got worse, and one where the mice were successfully being eradicated leading to increased albatross breeding successes.  If the mice were to be eradicated, albatross populations could experience a significant increase by 2050 with a population of up to 7.6 times today’s size. 

Citation: Ryan, Peter G. (2022/06/18). Cryptic population decrease due to invasive species predation in a long-lived seabird supports need for eradication. Journal of Applied Ecology, n/a, -. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14218

Which trees are better suited for drought resistance and why?

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Small and slow is safe: On the drought tolerance of tropical tree species

Joannès Guillemot, Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul, Leticia Bulascoschi, Lourens Poorter, Xavier Morin, Bruno X. Pinho, Guerric le Maire, Paulo R. L. Bittencourt, Rafael S. Oliveira, Frans Bongers, Rens Brouwer, Luciano Pereira, German Andrés Gonzalez Melo, Coline C. F. Boonman, Kerry A. Brown, Bruno E. L. Cerabolini, Ülo Niinemets, Yusuke Onoda, Julio V. Schneider, Serge Sheremetie, Pedro H. S. Brancalion

Summarized by Habiba Rabiu, a student of environmental geosciences at Fort Hays State University. Habiba is interested in all aspects of environmental science and conservation & sustainability. She would like to work in educating others about those topics. In her free time, she likes to read, write, and bake. 

What data were used? In this study, data concerning 601 tree species were examined. To determine what characteristics of a tree would make it more drought resistant, three qualities were assessed: resistance of xylem to embolism, which is the blocking of water from moving through the plant (designated as P50 by the authors), leaf turgor loss point or the ability of a plant to maintain turgor pressure and operate under water stress (TLP), and the hydraulic safety margin (HSM) which is the risk that a plant will experience hydraulic failure in the driest conditions it could normally face. HSM can also be defined as the difference between turgor loss point and resistance to embolism (HSM=TLP-P50).

The researchers compiled data from previous meta-analyses on the TLP and P50 values of the chosen tree species. The species were further divided based on leaf habit, meaning whether they were evergreen or deciduous. Additionally, seven traits of the species were considered: leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf size, leaf nitrogen concentration (leaf N), leaf phosphorus concentration (leaf P), wood density, maximum height, and seed mass. The type of forest the species lived in, whether dry or moist, was also a factor that was considered.

Methods: To organize these data in a way that would allow classification of the tree species based on drought resistance, the researchers found two major axes (traits) that contributed to drought resistance. The most important factor (labeled the “fast-slow” axes) showed the difference in rate of resource attainment and processing between the tree species. The second most important factor was the “stature-recruitment” axes, which compared the relationship between preference for (that is more energy and resources are allotted to) growth and survival of individual plants, to preference for new seedling propagation.

LMA, wood density, and leaf N and leaf P concentrations are features that determine where the species falls on the fast-slow axes, while maximum height, seed mass, and leaf size indicate their position on the stature-recruitment axes. TLP and P50 values (plus the calculated HSM values) demonstrate how well the species respond to lack of water and the accompanying stress. Lower values of HSM, TLP, and P50 (which are expressed as negative numbers) indicate more drought resistance.

Results:  The research determined that TLP and P50 (blocking of hydraulic action and the ability of the plant to maintain water pressure) were more negative in dry forests, and evergreen species tended to exhibit more negative TLP and smaller TLP- based HSM (risk that a plant will experience hydraulic failure) in dry forests than deciduous forests. The species that had the more negative TLP/P50 values and smaller HSM values tended to be smaller (leaned more to the recruitment side of the “stature-recruitment” axes) and slower to get and use resources (leaning towards “slow” rather than “fast” on those axes). In other words, smaller and slower evergreen trees were more drought resistant, and dry forests were naturally better suited to survive water stress than moist ones. 

Both graphs have an x-axis showing the properties P50, TLP, HSM, and leaf habit. The y-axis shows a range of R² in percentages from 0 to 60. Graph (b) shows P50 at around 30%, TLP around 60%, HSM around 10%, and leaf habit around 2%. Graph (c) shows P50 at around 37%, TLP around 1%, HSM around 20% and leaf habit around 1%.
The R² value shows the strength of the relationship between the qualities shown on the x-axis and the subject of the graph. Graph (b) shows that TLP is strongly related to the fast-slow axes, while (b) and (c) show that P50 has a similar relationship with the fast-slow axes and the stature-recruitment axes.

Why is this study important? One significant takeaway from this study is that it shows that drought resistance is not an independent quality that can be assessed on its own, it’s a complex mix of many traits. Isolating which traits are possessed by the most drought-resistant trees is valuable information when contending with ecosystems that are becoming hotter and drier as global warming becomes a bigger threat.

The big picture: Planting trees to restore tropical forests could be a great tool to combat the ill effects of climate change. However, care has to be taken to ensure that the trees planted are equipped to deal with the increased temperature of the atmosphere and presence of greenhouse gasses that come with global warming. 

Citation: Guillemot, J., Martin- StPaul, N. K., Bulascoschi, L., Poorter, L., Morin, X., Pinho, B. X., le Maire, G., Bittencourt, P. R. L., Oliveira, R. S., Bongers, F., Brouwer, R., Pereira, L., Gonzalez Melo, G. A., Boonman, C. C. F., Brown, K. A., Cerabolini, B. E. L., Niinemets, Ü., Onoda, Y. Schneider, J. V., … Brancalion, P. H. S. (2022). Small and slow is safe: On the drought tolerance of tropical tree species. Global Change Biology, 28, 2622– 2638. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16082

Using Dinosaur Models to Learn More About Their Behavior

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Digital 3D Models of Theropod Dinosaurs for Approaching Body Mass Distribution and Volume

by: Matías Reolid, Francisco J. Cardenal , Jesús Reolid

Summarized by: Makayla Palm 

What data were used? This study picked physical dinosaur models from eight different genera, or groups of dinosaur species, to scan and create 3D computer models. These models were used, alongside measurements collected from previous studies on each genus, in order to infer how these dinosaurs may have hunted, moved, and lived. The eight genera in the study were: Coelophysis, Dilophosaurus, Ceratosaurus, Allosaurus, Carnotautus, Baryonyx, Tyrannosaurus, and Giganotosaurus. 

Methods: Each model was scanned by a 3D printer in order to make a digital image. After the eight models were scanned, data on body length, collected in other studies, was added to the models. information was used in order to calculate body mass, volume, and skull length. These calculations were then used to make three ratios: skull length/body length, surface area/volume, and length/mass. 

Results: The three ratios calculated, skull length/body length, length/mass, and surface area/volume reveal information about these genera that wouldn’t be easily found by just observing the fossils, such as metabolism, eating habits, and overall roles in the ecosystem. The study first looks at the skull length/body length ratio. The larger a skull the dinosaur had, the larger and more expansive their jaws were. This is directly correlated to a higher demand for energy and higher body mass; a large skull was required to take down enough prey to fulfill energy demands. . If a dinosaur had a smaller skull, it was less equipped to take down larger prey, so this limits the kind of prey it had access to. In the case of Coelophysis, the oldest and smallest genus in the study, its skull/body length ratio infers that its small jaws were suited to smaller prey on land, but also small fish. In contrast, the larger theropods, Tyrannosaurus and Giganotosaurus, had the ability to hunt larger prey because of their large skull/body ratio. 

The next ratio observed was the length/mass ratio. This ratio considers differences in body plan that the skull/body length ratio does not. For example, Carnotaurus had a short skull in comparison to the other genera in the study, so it is the outlier in the group. However, the length/mass ratio accounts for its build, which recognizes its ability to hunt larger prey. Similarly, Baryonyx has one of the largest skull/body length ratios, but its long snout shape, similar to modern crocodiles, suggests it fed exclusively on fish and other swimming organisms, rather than large land-living prey. This ratio also sheds light on locomotion possibilities for these theropods. Allosaurus, a mid-size theropod, had longer arms than most other large dinosaurs like Tyrannosaurus. This suggests it may have used its arms when taking down large prey unlike its larger theropod comparisons, which are famous for their seemingly useless arms. 

The final ratio observed in this study is the surface area/volume ratio. This was used to study the efficiency of the dinosaurs to release excess heat, which has strong implications for metabolism. If an organism can release heat efficiently, it can have a higher metabolism, because high-metabolism organisms need that heat release. Researchers found that the smaller the dinosaur, the higher heat release, therefore a high metabolism and vice versa. This is consistent with the study’s findings on feeding habits. Coelophysis preyed on smaller organisms, but was probably able to do so more frequently. Tyrannosaurus hunted larger prey, but most likely needed to rest in between for significant periods of time because of its slower metabolism. 

A scatter-plot graph represents the different body mass and skull/body ratios of each theropod dinosaur genus . The overall trend is a positive exponential growth, which represents a consistent increase in these ratios over time, with Carnotaurus as the outlier because of its shorter skull shape. Coelophysis, the smallest of the studied genera, has the smallest body mass and skull-to-body length ratio and plots on the x-axis. Dilophosaurus, Ceratosaurus, Baryonyx, Allosaurus, Giganotosaurus and Tyrannosaurus all follow the curve of the graph and are listed here in order from smallest to largest skull to body length ratios. Carnotaurus, the outlier on the graph, has a point on the graph that lies close to the origin despite its slightly larger body mass.
This scatter plot displays each dinosaur’s body weight by skull-to-body ratio. As body weight increases, so does the skull/body length ratio. The outlier in the group is Carnotaurus, as its shorter skull gives it a smaller skull/body length ratio.

Why is this study important? This study allows observations of theropod dinosaurs to be made that would not be possible from studying just the bones. This data strengthens previous ideas about theropod behavior, such as larger dinosaurs need more energy and need to hunt larger prey. Therefore, their body structure is reflective of a creature able to take down the kind of prey it needs. This study also provides new information previously not available because of new data about metabolism and body surface area, such as a surface area/volume ratio, which indicates what dinosaur metabolism may have been. 

The big picture: This study of 3D scans of theropod dinosaurs infer information from new data by scanning to scale models. These data allow researchers to compare new measurements like surface area and volume to better understand what dinosaur metabolisms and body plans may have been like, which may confirm or reform what we already know about their roles in their respective environments. 

Citation: Reolid, Matías, et al. “Digital 3D Models of Theropods for Approaching Body-Mass Distribution and Volume.” Journal of Iberian Geology, vol. 47, no. 4, 2021, pp. 599–624., https://doi.org/10.1007/s41513-021-00172-1. 

How climate change and other factors have affected Caribbean reefs for 150 years

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A century of warming on Caribbean reefs

Colleen B. Bove, Laura Mudge, and John F. Bruno

Summarized by Habiba Rabiu, a student of environmental geosciences at Fort Hays State University. Habiba is interested in all aspects of environmental science and conservation & sustainability. She would like to work in educating others about those topics. In her free time, she likes to read, write, and bake. 

What data were used? The researchers compiled data from three ocean temperature databases (HadISST, Pathfinder, and OISST) to assess changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and marine heatwave (MHW) occurrences in coral reefs situated in the Caribbean from 1871 to 2020. These data consisted of both in situ readings (those that were taken directly at the surface of the water from boats or buoys) and remote satellite readings. 

Methods: Using data from multiple sources, the researchers determined the locations of 5,326 coral reefs in the Caribbean. Referring to the World Wildlife Fund marine ecoregion classifications, these reefs were sorted into 8 ecoregions. From these data, they assessed the SST for the Caribbean basin as a whole, each ecoregion, and the individual reefs. They also assessed the frequency and duration of MHV events (periods of time, lasting at least five days, when the temperature of a marine area is abnormally high for that location and time) in the basin and the reefs. 

Results: Over the past 150 years, Caribbean coral reefs have warmed by 0.5-1˚C. As a whole, the Caribbean basin has experienced an increase of temperature at a rate of 0.04˚C per decade since 1871 and 0.17˚C per decade since 1981. The rate of increase in each ecoregion differed slightly, with the most recent measurements describing a range from an increase of 0.17˚C per decade in the Bahamian ecoregion to 0.26˚C per decade in the Southern and Eastern Caribbean ecoregions. 

 The frequency and duration of MHW have also increased, particularly since 2010. In the 1980s, MHW occurred once a year on average, which increased to an average of five times a year in the 2010s. This has drastically decreased the return time of the MHW events (the number of days between each event.) In the 1980s an average of 377 days elapsed between each MHW, while in the 2010s, an average of 111 days of return time was recorded. Additionally, recent MHW events have lasted for an average of 14 days compared to the 1980s when they typically lasted less than 10.

The figure shows a series of colored stripes, each of which represents one year from 1870 (on the left) to 2020. The higher temperatures are shown in dark red, which lighten to lighter red and pink as the temperature decreases. The coldest temperatures are shown in dark blue, lightening to paler blues as they get warmer. The left side of the figure (about 2/5 of it) shows mostly blue stripes, while the remainder is mostly pink and red, with the darkest red stripes on the rightmost side showing the late 2010s and 2020.
Stripe diagram showing the increase in mean annual temperature of Caribbean coral reefs, with warmer temperatures (max annual SST of 28.0) depicted in shades of red and cooler temperatures (min annual SST of 26.6) depicted in blue.

Why is this study important? Oceans make up the majority of the Earth’s surface, and the organisms that live there are being greatly affected by global warming and other degradational occurrences in the environment such as sewage pollution and pesticide runoff. Coral reefs are especially rich in biodiversity and contribute greatly to the overall health of the oceans. Given that most marine animals species are ectothermic (they have little to no internal/physiological control of heat and rely on their environment to regulate their temperature), drastic changes in temperature can affect their metabolism, alter their growth rates and caloric needs, cause disease outbreaks, and in some cases lead to the loss of a species entirely which further disrupts the food webs and other delicate systems of the ecosystem. 

The big picture: There are several factors that are causing the destruction of coral reefs, including overfishing (and other human activities), pollution, and overabundance of macroalgae (which thrives in warmer waters), but marine temperature increase has proven to be a primary factor, mainly due to how it causes coral bleaching (when algae is forcibly expelled from the coral, leaving it vulnerable). This is important because it shows that coral reefs are not only affected by regional and local activity, but also by global warming that is largely caused by the activity of first world countries, even if they are not necessarily close to the areas being affected. Halting the ruin of the reefs and other complex ecosystems will require global attention and effort, particularly from more populous, technologically advanced regions that use the greenhouse gasses that are increasing the temperature of the Earth’s surface.

Citation: Bove CB, Mudge L, Bruno JF (2022) A century of warming on Caribbean reefs. PLOS Climate 1(3): e0000002. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000002

Ecologically diverse clades dominate the oceans via extinction resistance

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Ecologically diverse clades dominate the oceans via extinction resistance

Matthew L. Knope, Andrew M. Bush, Luke O. Frishkoff, Noel A. Heim, and Jonathan L. Payne

Summarized by Anna Geldert

What data were used? Researchers examined taxonomic data of marine organisms across 444 million years of geologic time. Taxonomic data relates to the level of biodiversity of organisms, and classifies them under different evolutionary categories (domain, kingdom, phylum, class, order, family, genus, and species). On the whole, this study examined 19,992 genera (species groups) from the fossil record and 30,074 genera of living marine species..

Methods: This study examined speciation (origination) and extinction rates of marine species over the past 444 million years. Speciation refers to the evolution of new species, while extinction occurs when a species dies out; both factors impact the overall level of biodiversity. Net diversification rates (i.e., the difference between speciation and extinction rates) were calculated for each period  of geologic time. Additionally, researchers graphed a relationship between the species richness and ecological diversity at different points in geological time. Species richness refers simply to the number of species in a group, while ecological diversity indicates the number of “modes of life” present, such as varying habitats, levels of mobility, and feeding methods.

Results: An examination of the fossil record found that a high biodiversity among species groups could be reached in two primary ways: firstly, by a relatively short period of high speciation, and secondly, by a gradual increase over time due to average speciation and low extinction. While the first category tended to reach high biodiversity faster, they were more vulnerable to mass extinctions than the second group. Most species groups alive today, therefore, evolved via the second route. With respect to the relationship between species richness and ecological diversity, this study found a positive correlation between the two factors, meaning that a variety of life modes can be tied to having more species. 

The figure compares ecological diversity and species richness over the past 444 million years of geologic time. Species richness is graphed as the log10 of the number of genera on the x-axis, while ecological diversity (in log10 of the number of modes of life) is on the x-axis. The x-axis spans from 0 to 4 in increments of 1, while the y-axis spans from 0.0 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5. Several slopes in different colors are shown, with a legend indicating the geologic time to which the slope corresponds. The geologic stages of time included are: Silurian to Devonian (443.4 to 358.9 million years ago), Carboniferous to Permian (358.9 to 252.2 mya), Triassic (252.2 to 201.3 mya), Jurassic to Cretaceous (201.3 to 66.0 mya), and Paleogene to Neogene (66.0 to 0.0117 mya). The slope of the modern relationship between species richness and ecological diversity is also shown. Slope values range from approximately 0.20 to 0.32 and appear generally to increase steadily over time, with some overlap between geologic stages. The modern slope is approximately 0.30, and lies in the middle of the range of slope values for the Paleogene to Neogene category.
Fig 1. Relationship between species richness and ecological diversity of marine species from 444 million years ago to present.

Why is this study important? The results from this study reveal that, in the long run, rapid diversification within a species group is not sustainable because the majority of this species group is likely to be wiped out during a mass extinction event. On the other hand, gradual diversification in species groups that are able to survive mass extinctions is a more probable explanation for modern levels of marine biodiversity. These species were most likely able to survive mass extinctions due to higher levels of ecological diversity, a theory which would also explain why ecological diversity has been increasing compared to species richness over more recent eras. This study is important because it calls into question an accepted theory that directly links ecological diversity to speciation rates. While the results from this study likewise recognizes a correlation between these factors, it also implies that the relationship between the two factors may be more complex. It is only because species groups with high ecological diversity were able to survive mass extinction events that this correlation is seen so clearly today.

The big picture: This study is important in the larger field of evolutionary ecology because it impacts our understanding of how species evolve and respond to extinction pressures over time. Researchers should not assume that the tight correlation between species richness and ecological biodiversity implies a direct causational relationship, because as this study reveals, in many cases the relationship is more complicated than that. Further research is needed to fully analyze the role that ecological diversity plays in survival of mass extinctions.

Citation: Knope, M. L., Bush, A. M., Frishkoff, L. O., Heim, N. A., & Payne, J. L. (2020). Ecologically diverse clades dominate the oceans via extinction resistance. Science, 367(6481), 1035–1038. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax6398

 

44% of Earth’s land surface must receive conservation attention to stop the biodiversity crisis

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The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity

James R. Allan, Hugh P. Possingham, Scott C. Atkinson, Anthony Waldron, Moreno Di Marco, Stuart H.M. Butchart, Vanessa M. Adams, W. Daniel Kissling, Thomas Worsdell, Chris Sandbrook, Gwill Gibbon, Kundan Kumar, Piyush Mehta, Martine Maron, Brooke A. Williams, Kendall R. Jones, Brendan A. Wintle, April E. Reside, James E. M. Watson. 

Summarized by Michael Hallinan

What data were used? No new data was generated for this study, instead already existing data from different sources was combined in a new way. Spatial data about existing protected areas, key biodiversity areas, and ecologically intact areas was taken from the World Database on Protected Areas from February 2020 and 2017. In addition, data from the September 2019 version of the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas was used, as well as animal distribution data from IUCN Red List and the BirdLife International Handbook. All this data was then merged to create an existing guide to important conservation areas as well as biodiversity. This is necessary to determine the existing species health and eventually predict future species health.

Methods: Using the animal distribution data, targets were set for what percentage needs to be conserved based on the range and quantity of each of the groups such as freshwater crabs, terrestrial mammals, and birds. Following this, an analysis on each species range and the determined important conservation areas was performed to identify what additional range may be needed as well as a potential lack of species in those areas. Then, a series of optimization analyses was performed on 30 x 30 km land units to determine which land would need to be conserved to reach those targets. Factors like cost, historical inquiry, human development, and the inability to perform agriculture as a result of conservation were also estimated. Finally, after all these considerations, potential areas for future conservation efforts were identified and outlined as different components. There are four components: Protected areas, which are areas outlined for general conservation; Key Biodiverse areas, which is land labeled for conservation of specific biodiversity; Ecologically Intact communities are ecological land which contain all the expected species within the ecosystem; and Conservation Priorities, which is land that requires conservation attention.

Results: Ultimately, the study estimates that the minimum land area that needs conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity is 64.7 million square kilometers (~24.9 million square miles), or roughly 44% of Earth’s terrestrial area. This 64.7 million comprises 35.1 million km of ecologically intact areas, 20.5 million of already existing protected areas, 11.6 million of key biodiversity areas, and 12.4 million km of additional land needed to promote species wellness in the smallest range possible. As for specific regions, this means 64% of the land in North America, and at least 33.1% of Europe’s land needs to be protected.

In addition to these spatial statistics, it’s also found that currently 1.87 billion people live on land that needs conservation attention, or approximately 24% of the world’s population with Africa, Asia, and Central America being the most affected due to high population density.  Approximately 55% of this land is located in developed economies such as Canada or Germany. As for the animal targets themselves, amphibians, reptiles, and freshwater animals were found to be below even half the target population . On the other hand, birds and mammals were found to be between 50 and 75% of the target population.

A map of the world, where terrestrial land is marked with protected areas, key biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and additional conservation priorities identified. North America features many areas of key biodiversity with much of the United States being labeled as additional conservation priorities, specifically along the coast and the south-east. Canada is overwhelmingly labeled as ecologically intact with some already protected areas and some key biodiversity areas. Central America is heavily labeled as in need of conservation priorities with a relatively-high quantity of key biodiversity areas. South America consists of heavily protected areas in the Amazonas with many areas of additional conservation priorities along the coasts, and some key biodiversity areas. Large parts of identified areas in Europe are already protected, with some new conservation priorities near coastal regions and eastern Europe such as Belarus. Africa is mainly ecologically intact with the Sahara desert in the north, anda diverse mixture of protected areas, additional conservation priority areas, and key biodiversity areas across the whole continent. Next, Oceania has a large quantity comprising mostly protected areas and ecologically intact areas in central Australia with additional conservation priorities identified around the coast and neighboring island nations. Lastly, Asia is heavily ecologically intact towards the northern part of Russia, and becomes a mixture of protected areas, ecologically intact, and a heavy quantity of conservation priority areas as you go from the southern part of Russia through the rest of the continent. It’s also notable that China contains a large amount of the protected areas in the Himalayas.
This graph shows the protected areas (light blue), Key Biodiversity Areas (purple), and ecologically intact areas (dark blue), as well as new conservation priorities (green). The Venn Diagram to the left shows proportional overlap between features, showing that the majority of both the ecologically intact areas as well as the key biodiversity areas are currently not yet protected.

Why is this study important?: Land loss and conversion is one of the biggest threats to biodiversity. As climate change increases and human development expands, plants and animals become increasingly threatened and infringed upon leading to potential permanent damage, loss of life, and possibly even extinction. By performing studies like these, we can identify what areas are especially valuable, create action plans to remediate damage and support existing animal biodiversity.

This study identifies not only the amount of land needed, but also suggests where specific conservation attention needs to be focussed, as well as economic and social considerations that should be taken into account. In addition it needs to be kept in mind that historically, some conservation actions have adversely affected Indigienous people, Afro-descendants, and other local communities such as forcible removal of native populations off land in the name of conservation. By considering all of the social, economic, scientific, and historical factors that affect this issue, we can support the world around us better. 

The Big Picture: To safeguard biodiversity throughout future years, conservation attention needs to be given to an estimated minimum of 64.7 million square kilometers or roughly 44% of the Earth’s terrestrial land. This was estimated through mapping and data analysis of existing protected areas and existing species distribution data, which was then viewed on a global scale. Amphibians, reptiles, and freshwater animals are the furthest from the targets they need to meet to survive in the long run.The majority of the land which needs the most conservation efforts appears in developed nations. 

Citation: Allan, J.R., Possingham, H.P., Atkinson, S.C., Waldron, A., Di Marco, M., Butchart, S.H., Adams, V.M., Kissling, W.D., Worsdell, T., Sandbrook, C. and Gibbon, G., 2022. The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity. Science, 376(6597), pp.1094-1101.

Elizabeth Rohlicek, Podcast host and Paleobiologist

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Tell us a little bit about yourself. Living on Vancouver Island in the Pacific Northwest, I’m so lucky to be in such a great environment. I love packing up my car and going for hikes, camping, island hopping, and paddling on the ocean. My summer days are spent reading and camping, and my winter (rainy) months are spent playing board games on my couch in front of the fire after a day of skiing. One of my passions outside of my research is my podcast Below the Tide. I get to chat with scientists about their marine research, and make it accessible to the public.

Elizabeth stands in a museum exhibit at the Royal BC Museum with an image of an Orca Whale behind her. She is wearing a striped shirt while she holds large vertebra fossils in her hands.
© Kristina Blanchflower with Hakai Magazine (photo is from the article Whales in the Cliff Face https://hakaimagazine.com/features/whales-in-the-cliff-face/)

What kind of scientist are you and what do you do? I started my research as an undergraduate project, for course credit. The curator of paleontology at the Royal British Columbia Museum is an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, where I was completing my degree. I had been volunteering with Dr. Arbour for a couple of weeks before March 2020. In September of 2020 she offered me a project that involved looking through some cabinets of cetacean fossils from Vancouver Island that had been collected over the last few decades. The fossils had never been evaluated nor published on. So I jumped in, and learned about fossils as I went. The fossils are from the Oligocene period, which is a geological time period that defines the time of about 23-33 million years ago. This is such an important time in whale evolution; it is the time where we see toothed whales and baleen whales diverging. Before this time, all whales were toothed, and hunted their food. But something happened in this time period where whales started to grow baleen plates in their mouth, and the fun part is that nobody is completely sure why! A really thrilling part of this work is that the fossils were found on Vancouver Island, where I live. My research is helping to contribute to the fossil record of the North Pacific, and putting Vancouver Island on the map to prove the importance of the fossil record here. Oligocene-aged whale fossils are not found everywhere in the world; there are only select geographic areas where fossils from this time period can be found easily, and it just so happens that one of my favourite beaches on the island is a prime fossil hunting location!

Through this project I did some outreach work through the museum; creating accessible learning material in different media types and presenting my research at the Society of Vertebrate Paleontology conference in 2021!

I discovered this immense passion for public outreach and making science accessible, through this research project. That was what pushed me to start my podcast: Below the Tide. The goal of Below the Tide is to create a space in which marine scientists can share their research and stories in an accessible way to the public. We break down their research and chat about what their path and fieldwork looks like. I love the idea of bringing attention to so many realms of marine science, but also showing that scientists lead such remarkable lives.

Elizabeth sits at a table with her computer open, and three vertebrae fossils in front of her. She is wearing a mask, and has an open notebook in front of her with sketches of the fossils on her desk.
© Victoria Arbour

What is your favorite part about being a scientist, and how did you get interested in science? I’ve always been into science, since I was a kid. My parents were in the science field, but they always encouraged me to follow my own path. My interest in science was different from theirs – I was really intrigued in the inner workings of ecosystems, and marine science. I moved across Canada from Montreal to Victoria to study marine science at the University of Victoria, and completed a bachelor’s degree in biology and earth and ocean sciences. Through my degree I got really interested in paleobiology, specifically cetacean evolution. My other interest in the scientific field really is science communication. I’m excited to see where my podcast takes me, and I hope making science accessible is something I can continue in.

How does your work contribute to the betterment of society in general? Paleobiology in general is really important for understanding ecosystem and organism evolution, and their responses to changes in the environment. Even looking at cetacean evolution; we can see there was an immense amount of diversity in cetacean populations about 33 million years ago. Today’s cetacean populations are commonly struggling in the face of climate change, and other anthropogenic influences.  We can use the past millions of years of changing climate to assess how populations today may face the current issues. The field of anything paleo related isn’t all about fossils; it also includes ancient climates, ecosystems, influences, changes, and so much more. I love how the realm of paleo is so collaborative and is just one big puzzle.

Five fossils sit on foam on top of a table. There is a large canon camera mounted on a tripod, facing them. Rulers and calipers are also on the table next to Liz’s computer.
© Elizabeth Rohlicek

What advice do you have for up and coming scientists? Take opportunities as they are presented to you, and reach out to people. I’m a believer in no opportunity is a waste of time, it definitely is a growing opportunity. If you start a volunteer position in a lab and realize you aren’t keen on lab work; you’ve learned something about yourself! Congrats! It means that you now know that a career or position in a lab may not be your cup of tea. And on the second point; reach out to people if you want to learn about their research. Ask questions, ask for potential volunteer positions, ask for career advice. The worst that will happen is that they will say no. So if you are interested in a certain field, find someone who is in that field and ask to connect. They are your most valuable resource. That way you can ask all the questions, ask for advice, and network.

Follow Liz’s updates on Twitter (hyperlink) and her podcast on Twitter (hyperlink) and Instagram (hyperlink)!

Climate Change Very Likely to Slow Plant Growth in Northern Hemisphere

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Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere

By: Yichen Zhang, Shillong Piao, Yan Sun, Brendan M. Rogers, Xiangyi Li, Xu Lian, Zhihua Liu, Anping Chen, Josep Peñuelas

Summarized by: Michael Hallinan

What data were used? No new data was generated for this study, instead existing data from different sources was used and combined. The majority of the data used in this study comes from FLUXCOM, an initiative that uses satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and site level observations at a global scale. In addition, data was also sourced from the World Climate Research Program, including from a variety of contributors such as the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Information on temperature, precipitation, surface downwelling shortwave radiation, maximum near-surface air temperature, and total influx of carbon into an ecosystem were used.

Methods: An earth climate model was created using the relationship between surface air temperature, summer carbon influx, precipitation, and surface downwelling radiation for the Northern Hemisphere. This model featured a moving 20-year window from 2001-2020 all the way to 2081-2100. Then using this model, analysis on carbon influx and surface air temperature was performed to generate a predictive model for temperature. From here, bias corrections were applied using observed data from 2001 to 2013 to help correct the model. Finally, projected temperatures were then compared to the historically observed optimal temperature for vegetation productivity. 

Results: Through this study it was discovered that there is a positive correlation between carbon fixation during summer and temperatures, although the correlation becomes negative at lower latitudes, specifically less than 45 degrees North, which could be a result of water deficits. Furthermore, it was also seen that about 48% of Northern vegetative land will see a significant decrease in the quantity of carbon fixed as a result of warming by 2060. Most regions will also experience a reduction in vegetative productivity as early as 2030-2070. This development will likely not reach the northern regions prior to the end of the modeled time frame (2100). However, in the worst case scenario most latitudes south of 50 degrees north such as much of the temperate United States, Asia, and the equatorial regions of Africa and South America were affected. It is important to note that study does not account for any of the southern hemisphere. 

A model of the earth, showing when temperature increase will begin to have a net negative effect on vegetative growth. Much of the northern hemisphere below 50 degrees north experiences this in 2030 or earlier. Slightly north of those regions the estimate is closer to 2070, with regions near the Artic and Tibetan Plateau not experiencing this till the end of the modeled time frame of 2100.
Map identifying the worst case scenarios climate model, showing timing of when temperature increase will begin to have a net negative effect on vegetative growth.

Why is the study important?: Climate change includes an increase in temperatures, which has caused an increase in vegetation productivity in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere since 1980. However, as climate change has begun to speed up, the positive benefits are estimated to change into a net negative effect on growth as temperature increases further. This study delves further into this idea and creates estimates based on different regions of when that will occur. This in turn can allow for preparedness, such as advancement of remediation plans to help us offset the negative effects of extreme temperatures on plant growth. 

The Big Picture: Vegetation is essential for agriculture, ecosystem balance, and general quality of life, so understanding the potential threat this aspect of climate change holds is essential for long-term sustainability and survival. Climate change has had a positive influence on plant growth in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere as early as 1980. However, this study has shown a shift in this to being a net negative influence as early as 2030 especially in regions below 50 degrees North. Regions closer to the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau are much less (or much slower) affected though, with a worst-case scenario not showing a tipping point prior to 2100 when net negative effects occur. Using these estimates, we can plan for this decrease in vegetative productivity as well as try to adapt and mitigate to minimize future negative impacts induced by the temperature increase.

Citation: Zhang, Y., Piao, S., Sun, Y. et al. Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 581–586 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01374-w

Anna Geldert (she/her), Geobiology Undergraduate Student

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background: greenery with trees and leaves and grassy area. foreground: Anna hugging a tree trunk and smiling. Tell us a little bit about yourself. Hi! My name is Anna Geldert (she/her). I’m from Minnesota, but I’ve spent the past year living in Vermont where I’m working toward my undergraduate degree at Middlebury College. In my free time, I enjoy reading, writing, practicing music, and playing volleyball on my college’s club team. I’m also a huge outdoor enthusiast, and I always look forward to camping, hiking, canoeing, or skiing with friends and family. Spending so much time outdoors as a kid is one of the factors that sparked my interest in the natural sciences in the first place, and the main reason I am so passionate about sustainability today. 

What kind of scientist are you and what do you do? Currently, I’m working toward a joint undergraduate degree in Biology and Geology. I’m fascinated by the way Earth’s natural systems function, and how they’ve evolved around the world and across geologic time. While I’m not totally sure what direction I want to go in this field, I’m ultimately hoping to pursue a career doing field research in relation to ecosystem response to climate and other anthropogenic change. 

What is your favorite part about being a scientist, and how did you get interested in science? In many ways, my interest in science developed long before I took any classes or considered a career in the field. One of my biggest supporters is my dad, who is a physics teacher. Growing up, he always encouraged me to stay curious and frequently used me as a guinea pig for demonstrations he planned to do in class the following day. I also spent a lot of time camping and hiking as a kid, which sparked my interest in the natural sciences. My favorite part about science is that it allows me to spend time outside with lots of hands-on experiences. Seeing first-hand how something we learned in class presents itself in the real world is really gratifying and reminds me why I wanted to study science in the first place.

background: light blue sky with clouds and darker tree line. Foreground: Anna rowing a canoe on a calm lake

How does your work contribute to the betterment of society in general? I hope my work will be used to help human societies coexist with the Earth in a way that makes sense for both parties. For example, last year I studied the potential of using fungal mycelium as a sustainable option for treating acid mine drainage. I think Earth’s natural systems have a lot to offer, and studying them can help us better understand how to act sustainably in our own life. 

background: trail in a forest with bright green leaves and a brown trail. foreground: Anna dressed in hiking gear with binoculars.What advice do you have for up and coming scientists? Science can be whatever you want to make of it. It is such a broad field, and there are so many opportunities to tailor your education and research to something you’re passionate about. Personally, I wasn’t super interested in science until I was able to do more hands-on experiments and independent research.. That was when I realized I could apply interests I already had – such as sustainability and the outdoors – to actual scientific study in Geo-Biology. I would encourage future scientists to keep an open mind and use science as a means to explore whatever sparks their curiosity.

Michael Hallinan, Undergraduate Student

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Tell us a bit about yourself. 
My name is Michael Hallinan, and I am currently an undergraduate student at Colorado School of Mines studying for a B.S. in Quantitative Bioscience and Engineering. Although I love science, I am also super passionate about painting, music, and esports! I have a huge fixation on international music and love to analyze the relationships between globalization and culture the same way I enjoy analyzing ecological relationships.

Person wearing a grey cap and yellow jacket in the foreground. In the background, there are tan rocks and mountains in the distance.
Hiking through the arches of Arches National Park, within Moab, Utah.

What kind of scientist are you, what do you do, and how does it benefit society?
My current focus in science is predominantly in biology, with an emphasis on computational methods to model and analyze biological data. While I’m still learning and progressing through my bachelor’s, my goal is to enter research regarding biotechnology and sustainability, with an emphasis on communication and making science more accessible to policy-makers and the general public. Information is one of the most powerful and freeing tools we can have as people, and my work will encourage solutions to our rapidly expanding sustainability issues as well encourage more people to engage with science. My most recent work was centered around investigating the power insecurity in Puerto Rico as a result of the hurricanes across the last decade, including educating and communicating the geopolitical landscape and data through various presentations.

What is your favorite part about being a scientist, and how did you get interested in science?
I didn’t know what I wanted to do for the longest. I’ve had so many passions and was originally lined up to pursue a degree in the arts after winning an art award through the United States Congress. However, throughout secondary school, I was introduced to the concept of genetic modification and was completely fascinated by the potential of humans to understand and improve the world around us through genome editing. Soon after, I heard about the brand new Quantitative Bioscience program at Colorado School of Mines and just knew it was the perfect fit as I entered college.

As for my favorite part of being a scientist, it’s simply how what you learn begins to explain so much of the world around you. Whether it’s something as simple as the basics of plant growth or as complicated as the inner workings of recombinant DNA, all the information you learn helps you better engage with, understand, and appreciate the world around you.

A self-portrait, with a person with dark hair, red lips, and gold eyes against a background of varying shades of grey.
“Fragmentum” – The award-winning piece mentioned, a self-portrait investigating identity and how we present ourselves to the world.

What advice do you have for up-and-coming scientists?
My best advice is to not be afraid of not knowing. So often I used to be scared of what people would think about me asking certain questions or I wouldn’t want to do things because I wasn’t fully comfortable. I wouldn’t ask questions in lecture or I wouldn’t take a guess if I was not totally certain. Asking questions and engaging with what is uncomfortable is some of the best ways to learn and develop your capabilities both as a scientist, but also as a person. In my own experience, I have learned so much more from situations where I was uncomfortable. Taking the time to talk to those who know more than you lets you learn, grow, and even build up your network. So, take that opportunity you’re unsure of, ask your “dumb” question, be unafraid!